New Nanotechnology Timeline

Nanotech is arriving faster than we thought.

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This article originally appeared on the BeyeNETWORK.

The focus of this article is to present an updated timeline for Nanotechnology. While it is not possible to predict all paths—this is a glimpse into recent advancements that have occurred from many different Nanotech sources and extrapolating that data to predict Nanotech’s future.

Where Are We Now?

In the previous article we alluded to the Nanotech timeline and each of its phases. To refresh your memory, a copy of this diagram is included below for reference. Each phase has its challenges but also its just rewards. Like any advancement that mankind makes, there are both good and bad uses for the end results. Hopefully, Nanotech advancements serve more good than bad. There are also different types of Nanotechnology experiments in the world today; some of those include: DNA computing, electron-spin computing or even light-wave computing.

Figure 1-1: Nanotech Timeline

This diagram depicts the author’s view of when the paradigm shifts may occur across time. Phase 1 represents where we are today, Phase 2 could be 1 to 2 years out, Phase 2.5 is an interim phase between 2 to 4 years, Phase 3 could be 3 to 6 years, and Phase 4 is the 5- to 10-year mark. The phases and their content will be discussed shortly 

The Nanotech Timeline

The timeline has become greatly compressed. In recent months there have been tremendous advances in the Nanotech area. In one of my previous articles (The Nanotechnology Revolution, June 30, 2004, B-EYE-Network.com), I had located an experiment done by DARPA in 1999 that allowed 10 terabytes of data to be searched in less than 3 seconds. This experiment proved that Terabyte computing (solution-based DNA) is already here. It may not be widely available, however it has been accomplished. Those that have accomplished this task are certainly much further along the timeline now. That same experiment proved that they could encrypt and decrypt (reverse the operation) or write-back to the nano-structures, again showing computing power. In October, a group of scientists reported self-assembling nano-clusters.

I had originally predicted this to occur five-plus years from now. Another recent article inScientific American reported DNA computing and secure encryption has been accomplished in a set of laboratories (January 2005, Best-Kept Secrets).  Still another article went on to describe “spintronic” computing. Each of these articles proves the availability of Nanotech computing. It is either very near, or in some cases, like bioinformatics, is already available.

The chart below depicts the author’s view of how the paradigm will shift over time. The phases correspond to Moore’s Law, which is shown at the beginning of this article. Phase 1 represents where we are today. The Nanotechnology Timeline and Nanohousing Timeline for Phase 1 are shown side-by-side to permit the reader to have a snapshot of the starting point for comparison to the later phases.

The chart continues with Phase 2. In the updated timeline, besides what has already been accomplished in Nanotechnology, as of today, we can also predict an increase in medical and biological delivery mechanisms. There will also most likely be a breakthrough beyond Moore’s Law of reduction (using Quantum Physics) during Phase 2.

For Nanohousing Phase 2, we can continue to predict the same developments as appeared in my previous article Nanotechnology Crossroads (August 19, 2004, B-EYE-Network.com).

Continuing the timeline chart with Interim Phase 2.5, which is the next two to four years, the reader will naturally see some overlap with Phase 2. However, as compared with this updated timeline and the previously published timeline, the reader will also see that I predict cheaper photo-resistant electronics, cheaper optical devices and auto on-off transmission on the Nanotechnology side of the diagram during this Interim Phase.

On the Nanohousing side, all of what was predicted for this Interim Phase 2.5 inNanotechnology Crossroadshas already been accomplished. The expected new achievements for Nanohousing during this Interim Phase are shown in the chart.

Phase 3 and Phase 4 follow the same patterns as above. The Nanotechnology side of the chart indicates that some achievements have already been realized.

On the Nanohousing side, the reader can see that Nanohousing has achieved what was predicted for these phases in the earlier article and it is expected to achieve the targets that were predicted in Phase 3. At this point the data warehouse itself is predicted to be obsolete, but remains the cornerstone of the Nanohouse.

Phase 4 for the Nanohouse predicts that all reports and analytics are done near real-time with the Nanohouse “plugged-in” to imprint images on walls and other media.

Nanotechnology Timeline Nanohousing Timeline

Phase 1: Today

  • Macro atomic devices (15-35 microns across)—an  ANT is 8,000,000 microns across.
  • Micro atomic devices (5 to 15 microns across)
  • Experimental chemical elements
  • High-cost fabrication (avg: $0.15 cents per RFID)
  • Difficulty in mass-production of quality elements.
  • No control over repair, detection, shut-off or removal.
  • Ideas, thoughts on the application of Nanotech to information, storage, retrieval (Nanohousing)
  • Lab experiments with “growing” nano-clusters, self-assembly of crystalline structures
  • Better manufacturing/mass production
  • Write-back capability
  • Wave Generation capabilities
  • Self-Error Detection
  • Better manufacturing/mass production
  • Integrated reprogrammable data stores, simplistic functionality
  • Terabyte computing in massive parallelism (true parallelism) through electronic signaling –invisible wave generation around the world.  (DNA Computing, 1999 DARPA experiment)
  • True Self-assembly

Phase 1: Today

  • More discrete definition of Nanites, and data- handling capability.
  • Definition of data rates of change, size estimations for data storage
  • New “3+ state” defined for bit operations, 1 = on, 0 = off, and 1/0 = comp
  • Factoring problems Solved through Wave Dynamics
  • Attachment of crude functions to query/store/manage data within nano-structures
  • Study of applicability of storing historical information, possibly within the 1/0 comp states—all possible values represented in a single-bit range

 

Phase 2: 1-2 years

  • Use of photo-electronic devices
  • Visualization control
  • Write-back capability
  • Visualization control
  • Self-error detection
  • Micro / Atomic “Debuggers”
  • Form / Function / Payload integration.
  • Nanoviruses, attacks on Nanotech components are introduced.
  • Mass production of light emitting devices (wave generation).
  • Increase in medical and biological delivery mechanisms.
  • Break-through to go beyond Moore’s Law of reduction (using Quantum Physics)

Phase 2: 1-2 years

  • Reprogramming of nano-devices through photon wave generators.
  • Introduction of security check algorithms, and self-correcting nanites
  • Initial stages of self-discovery, linkage applicability through outside programmatic forces.
  • Use of physical “disk” begins to be questioned.
  • Movement towards all atomic computing.
  • What we know as OLTP, ODS, DW, and Active DW merge to become known as Dynamic Nanohousing (DNH).

Phase 2.5: 2-4 years

  • Cheap Optical Components
  • Expensive Atomic Fabrics
  • Electrical and Wave Stimulation—altering structure on demand.
  • Cheaper photo-resistant electronics
  • Cheaper Optical Devices
  • Auto-on/off transmission.

Phase 2.5: 2-4 years

  • Experimentation turns to application of highly optimized neural algorithms—which are programmed directly into nano structures.
  • Data Vault (or similar architecture) used to house data in a highly attributive state.
  • New security algorithms developed to encrypt information within.
  • Neural net algorithms read and use encrypted data without “decrypting” it.
  • Crime rates of nano-devices rise significantly, particularly with the advent of particle wave technology—nano-devices are not safe anywhere in the open, they must be protected from stray wave generators.

Phase 3: 3-6 years

  • Visual Assembly—“CAD” for atomic devices
  • End-User Visible Control for structures
  • Smart Atoms / fabrics—capable of end-user interfacing.
  • Atomic tagging (identifying every atom uniquely).
  • Rise of crude, “self-aware” Nanotech.  It knows the payload it contains; it knows what it can bind to, and what it must repel. It knows what signals it can interface with, and it knows its boundaries and configurations.
  • Lab experiments with self-configuring “nano-clusters

Phase 3: 3-6 years

  • Nanites meet, and re-assemble based on information content, security and boundaries.
  • Nanohousing is in full-swing, information can now be traded without wires, halfway around the world through particle wave physics (convergence)
  • The notion of “data warehouse” is obsolete, but a foundational cornerstone for the Nanohouse, which filters current incoming information, and applies it dynamically to the history—using compression and white-noise neural net technology.

Phase 4: End Game, 5-8 years

  • Smart nano-clusters
  • Self-Interfacing nano-clusters (nanons)
  • Self-reconfiguring nanons
  • Smart Fabrics/Materials
  • Inward journeys into the mind through Nanotech

Phase 4: End Game, 5-8 years

•          Reports and Analytics are all done near-real-time.  The Nanohouse has to be “plugged in” to projection devices, or other nano-scale devices to imprint images on walls or other mediums.

Summary

Nanohousing and Nanotechnology go hand-in-hand. The recent advancements in the Nanotech area have everyone guessing just how this technology will be applied. One thing is certain: at this point, the scientists in the electronics world are hard at work—simply replacing our existing electronics with nanoelectronics. At first, we will see a tremendous increase in storage capacities, followed by a huge boost in computational power, and finally—true applications of the technology in strange and wondrous ways will begin to appear. It will be interesting to watch how this timeline evolves with each passing year.

In case you’re curious, or you’re a researcher, or you wish to get in touch with me, I’d love to hear your thoughts, comments and feedback on this issue—both critical and thoughtful perspectives.

  • Dan LinstedtDan Linstedt 
     

    Cofounder of Genesee Academy, RapidACE, and BetterDataModel.com, Daniel Linstedt is an internationally known expert in data warehousing, business intelligence, analytics, very large data warehousing (VLDW), OLTP and performance and tuning. He has been the lead technical architect on enterprise-wide data warehouse projects and refinements for many Fortune 500 companies. Linstedt is an instructor of The Data Warehousing Institute and a featured speaker at industry events. He is a Certified DW2.0 Architect. He has worked with companies including: IBM, Informatica, Ipedo, X-Aware, Netezza, Microsoft, Oracle, Silver Creek Systems, and Teradata.  He is trained in SEI / CMMi Level 5, and is the inventor of The Matrix Methodology, and the Data Vault Data modeling architecture. He has built expert training courses, and trained hundreds of industry professionals, and is the voice of Bill Inmons' Blog on http://www.b-eye-network.com/blogs/linstedt/.

 

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