Data Management Strategies for the CIOThis article originally appeared on the BeyeNETWORK.
The focus of this article is to present an updated timeline for Nanotechnology. While it is not possible to predict all paths—this is a glimpse into recent advancements that have occurred from many different Nanotech sources and extrapolating that data to predict Nanotech’s future.
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Where Are We Now?
In the previous article we alluded to the Nanotech timeline and each of its phases. To refresh your memory, a copy of this diagram is included below for reference. Each phase has its challenges but also its just rewards. Like any advancement that mankind makes, there are both good and bad uses for the end results. Hopefully, Nanotech advancements serve more good than bad. There are also different types of Nanotechnology experiments in the world today; some of those include: DNA computing, electron-spin computing or even light-wave computing.
Figure 1-1: Nanotech Timeline
This diagram depicts the author’s view of when the paradigm shifts may occur across time. Phase 1 represents where we are today, Phase 2 could be 1 to 2 years out, Phase 2.5 is an interim phase between 2 to 4 years, Phase 3 could be 3 to 6 years, and Phase 4 is the 5- to 10-year mark. The phases and their content will be discussed shortly
The Nanotech Timeline
The timeline has become greatly compressed. In recent months there have been tremendous advances in the Nanotech area. In one of my previous articles (The Nanotechnology Revolution, June 30, 2004, B-EYE-Network.com), I had located an experiment done by DARPA in 1999 that allowed 10 terabytes of data to be searched in less than 3 seconds. This experiment proved that Terabyte computing (solution-based DNA) is already here. It may not be widely available, however it has been accomplished. Those that have accomplished this task are certainly much further along the timeline now. That same experiment proved that they could encrypt and decrypt (reverse the operation) or write-back to the nano-structures, again showing computing power. In October, a group of scientists reported self-assembling nano-clusters.
I had originally predicted this to occur five-plus years from now. Another recent article inScientific American reported DNA computing and secure encryption has been accomplished in a set of laboratories (January 2005, Best-Kept Secrets). Still another article went on to describe “spintronic” computing. Each of these articles proves the availability of Nanotech computing. It is either very near, or in some cases, like bioinformatics, is already available.
The chart below depicts the author’s view of how the paradigm will shift over time. The phases correspond to Moore’s Law, which is shown at the beginning of this article. Phase 1 represents where we are today. The Nanotechnology Timeline and Nanohousing Timeline for Phase 1 are shown side-by-side to permit the reader to have a snapshot of the starting point for comparison to the later phases.
The chart continues with Phase 2. In the updated timeline, besides what has already been accomplished in Nanotechnology, as of today, we can also predict an increase in medical and biological delivery mechanisms. There will also most likely be a breakthrough beyond Moore’s Law of reduction (using Quantum Physics) during Phase 2.
For Nanohousing Phase 2, we can continue to predict the same developments as appeared in my previous article Nanotechnology Crossroads (August 19, 2004, B-EYE-Network.com).
Continuing the timeline chart with Interim Phase 2.5, which is the next two to four years, the reader will naturally see some overlap with Phase 2. However, as compared with this updated timeline and the previously published timeline, the reader will also see that I predict cheaper photo-resistant electronics, cheaper optical devices and auto on-off transmission on the Nanotechnology side of the diagram during this Interim Phase.
On the Nanohousing side, all of what was predicted for this Interim Phase 2.5 inNanotechnology Crossroadshas already been accomplished. The expected new achievements for Nanohousing during this Interim Phase are shown in the chart.
Phase 3 and Phase 4 follow the same patterns as above. The Nanotechnology side of the chart indicates that some achievements have already been realized.
On the Nanohousing side, the reader can see that Nanohousing has achieved what was predicted for these phases in the earlier article and it is expected to achieve the targets that were predicted in Phase 3. At this point the data warehouse itself is predicted to be obsolete, but remains the cornerstone of the Nanohouse.
Phase 4 for the Nanohouse predicts that all reports and analytics are done near real-time with the Nanohouse “plugged-in” to imprint images on walls and other media.
| Nanotechnology Timeline | Nanohousing Timeline |
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Phase 1: Today
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Phase 1: Today
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Phase 2: 1-2 years
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Phase 2: 1-2 years
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Phase 2.5: 2-4 years
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Phase 2.5: 2-4 years
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Phase 3: 3-6 years
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Phase 3: 3-6 years
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Phase 4: End Game, 5-8 years
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Phase 4: End Game, 5-8 years • Reports and Analytics are all done near-real-time. The Nanohouse has to be “plugged in” to projection devices, or other nano-scale devices to imprint images on walls or other mediums. |
Summary
Nanohousing and Nanotechnology go hand-in-hand. The recent advancements in the Nanotech area have everyone guessing just how this technology will be applied. One thing is certain: at this point, the scientists in the electronics world are hard at work—simply replacing our existing electronics with nanoelectronics. At first, we will see a tremendous increase in storage capacities, followed by a huge boost in computational power, and finally—true applications of the technology in strange and wondrous ways will begin to appear. It will be interesting to watch how this timeline evolves with each passing year.
In case you’re curious, or you’re a researcher, or you wish to get in touch with me, I’d love to hear your thoughts, comments and feedback on this issue—both critical and thoughtful perspectives.
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